Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Goulet vs Josh Koscheck

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-12-0Record17-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team LegionTeamDethrone Base Camp

What's at stake

Josh Koscheck is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Goulet carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jonathan GouletNow 1553
If they win+15→ 1568
If they lose-9→ 1544
Josh KoscheckNow 1644
If they win+9→ 1653
If they lose-15→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.61
Sig. strikes / min
1.79
42%
Strike accuracy
36%
2
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
46%
Strike defense
63%
4.17
Takedown avg.
2.46
70%
Takedown accuracy
48%
45%
Takedown defense
64%
0.60
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Jonathan GouletJosh Koscheck
15501600165017002008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

12 (52%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
8 (35%)
Submission
4 (24%)
3 (13%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Koscheck61%
Jonathan Goulet 39%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Koscheck a 61% favorite over Jonathan Goulet in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Josh Koscheck holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1553, a 91-point edge.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Goulet finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Josh Koscheck 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.