Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Goulet vs Luke Cummo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-12-0Record6-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team LegionTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team

What's at stake

Jonathan Goulet is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Luke Cummo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jonathan GouletNow 1553
If they win+11→ 1564
If they lose-13→ 1540
Luke CummoNow 1515
If they win+18→ 1533
If they lose-14→ 1501

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.61
Sig. strikes / min
1.74
42%
Strike accuracy
43%
2
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.50
46%
Strike defense
60%
4.17
Takedown avg.
0.89
70%
Takedown accuracy
56%
45%
Takedown defense
43%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.42

Trajectory

Jonathan GouletLuke Cummo
15001550160020062007200820092010

Win method breakdown

12 (52%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
8 (35%)
Submission
1 (17%)
3 (13%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Cummo52%
Jonathan Goulet 48%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Cummo a 52% favorite over Jonathan Goulet in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jonathan Goulet's way (45%).

Jonathan Goulet holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1553 to 1515, a 38-point edge.

Jonathan Goulet finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Luke Cummo 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.