Jonathan Hanes vs Rousimar Palhares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fitness QuestTeamTeam Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1559
If they lose-16→ 1527
If they win+12→ 1556
If they lose-12→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jonathan HanesRousimar Palhares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jonathan Hanes73%
Rousimar Palhares 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Hanes a 73% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rousimar Palhares's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1543 vs 1544), separated by just 1 points.
Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jonathan Hanes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.