Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Hanes vs Tiki Ghosn

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record10-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight169 lbs
Fitness QuestTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonathan HanesNow 1543
If they win+16→ 1559
If they lose-16→ 1527
Tiki GhosnNow 1540
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
62%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jonathan HanesTiki Ghosn
14501500155016002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
1 (17%)
Submission
2 (20%)
2 (33%)
Decision
6 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Tiki Ghosn62%
Jonathan Hanes 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tiki Ghosn a 62% favorite over Jonathan Hanes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jonathan Hanes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1543 vs 1540), separated by just 3 points.

Tiki Ghosn enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jonathan Hanes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tiki Ghosn 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.