Jonathan Hanes vs Trukon Carson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record6-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
-Reach71"
171 lbsWeight171 lbs
What's at stake
Trukon Carson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Hanes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1560
If they lose-15→ 1528
If they win+22→ 1596
If they lose-26→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jonathan HanesTrukon Carson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jonathan Hanes and Trukon Carson within a point of even.
Trukon Carson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1543, a 31-point edge.
Jonathan Hanes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Trukon Carson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.