Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Martinez vs Said Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-0Record18-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Factory XTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

Said Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Martinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jonathan MartinezNow 1678
If they win+18→ 1696
If they lose-14→ 1664
Said NurmagomedovNow 1723
If they win+14→ 1737
If they lose-18→ 1705

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.44
Sig. strikes / min
3.08
50%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.38
Takedown avg.
0.86
36%
Takedown accuracy
15%
68%
Takedown defense
63%
0.08
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Jonathan MartinezSaid Nurmagomedov
165017001750202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (47%)
KO/TKO
4 (22%)
2 (11%)
Submission
6 (33%)
8 (42%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Said Nurmagomedov66%
Jonathan Martinez 34%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Said Nurmagomedov a 66% favorite over Jonathan Martinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Said Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1678, a 45-point edge.

Jonathan Martinez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Martinez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Said Nurmagomedov 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.