Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Piersma vs Omar El Dafrawy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record16-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"Reach74"
173 lbsWeight170 lbs
Synthesis BJJTeamSoma Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonathan PiersmaNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Omar El DafrawyNow 1649
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jonathan PiersmaOmar El Dafrawy
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (33%)
KO/TKO
9 (56%)
7 (58%)
Submission
3 (19%)
1 (8%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Omar El Dafrawy66%
Jonathan Piersma 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Omar El Dafrawy a 66% favorite over Jonathan Piersma in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jonathan Piersma's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.

Omar El Dafrawy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jonathan Piersma finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Omar El Dafrawy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.