Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Wilson vs Oskar Piechota

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record11-3-1
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach42,0"
217 lbsWeight185 lbs
Millennia MMATeamPiranha Grappling Team

What's at stake

Oskar Piechota is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Wilson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jonathan WilsonNow 1546
If they win+21→ 1567
If they lose-11→ 1535
Oskar PiechotaNow 1650
If they win+11→ 1661
If they lose-21→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
3.30
48%
Strike accuracy
52%
5.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.93
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.37
Takedown avg.
0.61
100%
Takedown accuracy
40%
80%
Takedown defense
38%
0
Submission avg.
1.52

Trajectory

Jonathan WilsonOskar Piechota
15501600165017002017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
1 (11%)
Submission
5 (45%)
2 (22%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Oskar Piechota70%
Jonathan Wilson 30%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Oskar Piechota a 70% favorite over Jonathan Wilson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Oskar Piechota holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1546, a 104-point edge.

Jonathan Wilson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Oskar Piechota enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Wilson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Oskar Piechota 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.