Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Wilson vs Rômulo Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach-
217 lbsWeight170 lbs
Millennia MMATeamW Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonathan WilsonNow 1546
If they win+16→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1530
Rômulo OliveiraNow 1549
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
0.37
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
80%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jonathan WilsonRômulo Oliveira
15501600202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
1 (11%)
Submission
1 (14%)
2 (22%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Rômulo Oliveira62%
Jonathan Wilson 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rômulo Oliveira a 62% favorite over Jonathan Wilson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1549), separated by just 3 points.

Jonathan Wilson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Wilson finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rômulo Oliveira 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.