Jordan Espinosa vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'8"
38,0"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Luttrell-Yee MMATeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Matt Schnell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jordan Espinosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1585
If they lose-11→ 1561
If they win+11→ 1617
If they lose-13→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jordan EspinosaMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Schnell70%
Jordan Espinosa 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 70% favorite over Jordan Espinosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Matt Schnell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1572, a 34-point edge.
Jordan Espinosa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jordan Espinosa finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.