Jordan Fongno vs Raul Castillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record7-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'10"
-ReachUnknown
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Energy MMATeamRaul Castillo Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-24→ 1574
If they win+24→ 1625
If they lose-24→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jordan FongnoRaul Castillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jordan Fongno60%
Raul Castillo 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Fongno a 60% favorite over Raul Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raul Castillo's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1601), separated by just 3 points.
Jordan Fongno enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jordan Fongno finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Raul Castillo 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.