Jordan Johnson vs Marcel Fortuna
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
41,0"Reach42,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
MMA LabTeamRalph Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Jordan Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marcel Fortuna carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1716
If they lose-19→ 1684
If they win+19→ 1661
If they lose-13→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jordan JohnsonMarcel Fortuna
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jordan Johnson72%
Marcel Fortuna 28%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Johnson a 72% favorite over Marcel Fortuna in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Jordan Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1642, a 61-point edge.
Jordan Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marcel Fortuna 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.