Jordan Leavitt vs Julian Erosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record31-13-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height6'1"
71"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-12→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jordan LeavittJulian Erosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jordan Leavitt66%
Julian Erosa 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Leavitt a 66% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julian Erosa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1694), separated by just 1 points.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jordan Leavitt finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.
Julian Erosa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.