Combat Edge Intelligence

Jordan Leavitt vs Paddy Pimblett

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamNext Generation UK

What's at stake

Paddy Pimblett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jordan Leavitt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jordan LeavittNow 1693
If they win+21→ 1714
If they lose-11→ 1682
Paddy PimblettNow 1795
If they win+9→ 1804
If they lose-15→ 1780

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.21
Sig. strikes / min
5.49
57%
Strike accuracy
53%
1.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.89
59%
Strike defense
43%
3.15
Takedown avg.
0.69
34%
Takedown accuracy
21%
30%
Takedown defense
44%
1.05
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Jordan LeavittPaddy Pimblett
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (15%)
KO/TKO
7 (29%)
7 (54%)
Submission
11 (46%)
4 (31%)
Decision
6 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Paddy Pimblett64%
Jordan Leavitt 36%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 64% favorite over Jordan Leavitt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Paddy Pimblett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1795 to 1693, a 102-point edge.

Jordan Leavitt finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 75%.

Paddy Pimblett carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.