Combat Edge Intelligence

Jordan Mein vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jordan Mein
ca

Jordan Mein

“Young Gun”

32-14-0WelterweightBTC

1665Good

Tale of the tape

32-14-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
41,0"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Canadian Martial Arts CentreTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Jordan Mein is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jordan MeinNow 1665
If they win+9→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1650
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
69%
Strike defense
63%
1.56
Takedown avg.
0.71
58%
Takedown accuracy
61%
67%
Takedown defense
63%
0.22
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Jordan MeinThiago Alves
1600165017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

16 (50%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
7 (22%)
Submission
1 (4%)
9 (28%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Jordan Mein70%
Thiago Alves 30%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Mein a 70% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Jordan Mein holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1572, a 93-point edge.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jordan Mein finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.