Jorge Gurgel vs Mark Hominick
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record20-12-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
154 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Jorge GurgelTeamTeam Tompkins
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
If they win+12→ 1582
If they lose-12→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jorge GurgelMark Hominick
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Hominick56%
Jorge Gurgel 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Hominick a 56% favorite over Jorge Gurgel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1570), separated by just 6 points.
Jorge Gurgel enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mark Hominick enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jorge Gurgel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mark Hominick 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.