Jorge Lopez vs Justin Edwards
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record10-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Wand Fight TeamTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel
What's at stake
Justin Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jorge Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1535
If they lose-13→ 1503
If they win+13→ 1590
If they lose-19→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jorge LopezJustin Edwards
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jorge Lopez53%
Justin Edwards 47%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Lopez a 53% favorite over Justin Edwards in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Edwards's way (41%).
Justin Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1577 to 1516, a 61-point edge.
Jorge Lopez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Justin Edwards 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.