Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-17-0Record21-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1755
If they lose-9→ 1731
If they win+9→ 1831
If they lose-15→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1781 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jorge MasvidalKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman75%
Jorge Masvidal 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 75% favorite over Jorge Masvidal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1740, a 82-point edge.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jorge Masvidal finishes 51% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Jorge Masvidal and Kamaru Usman share 2 common opponents: Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington.
Kamaru Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.