Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Masvidal vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

35-17-0Record27-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jorge MasvidalNow 1740
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-11→ 1729
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+11→ 1777
If they lose-13→ 1753

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1781 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.05
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
48%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
64%
Strike defense
64%
1.38
Takedown avg.
0.27
59%
Takedown accuracy
43%
73%
Takedown defense
79%
0.32
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Jorge MasvidalLorenz Larkin
17502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

16 (46%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
2 (6%)
Submission
0 (0%)
17 (49%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin63%
Jorge Masvidal 37%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 63% favorite over Jorge Masvidal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1740, a 26-point edge.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jorge Masvidal finishes 51% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.