Jorge Masvidal vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-17-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
74"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSikjitsu· 1660 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-11→ 1729
If they win+11→ 1768
If they lose-13→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1782 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jorge MasvidalMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jorge Masvidal52%
Michael Chiesa 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Masvidal a 52% favorite over Michael Chiesa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Chiesa's way (48%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1757 to 1740, a 17-point edge.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jorge Masvidal finishes 51% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.