Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

35-17-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Jorge Masvidal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jorge MasvidalNow 1740
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1781 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
48%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
64%
Strike defense
53%
1.38
Takedown avg.
1.05
59%
Takedown accuracy
31%
73%
Takedown defense
42%
0.32
Submission avg.
1.29

Trajectory

Jorge MasvidalNate Diaz
17001750202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (46%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
2 (6%)
Submission
12 (57%)
17 (49%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Jorge Masvidal59%
Nate Diaz 41%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Masvidal a 59% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Jorge Masvidal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1674, a 66-point edge.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jorge Masvidal finishes 51% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.