Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Masvidal vs Rustam Khabilov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

35-17-0Record24-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'8"
74"Reach40,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Rustam Khabilov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jorge MasvidalNow 1740
If they win+14→ 1754
If they lose-10→ 1730
Rustam KhabilovNow 1785
If they win+10→ 1795
If they lose-14→ 1771

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1781 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1706 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.05
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
48%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
64%
Strike defense
66%
1.38
Takedown avg.
3.95
59%
Takedown accuracy
42%
73%
Takedown defense
61%
0.32
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Jorge MasvidalRustam Khabilov
175018002017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

16 (46%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
2 (6%)
Submission
5 (21%)
17 (49%)
Decision
15 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Khabilov75%
Jorge Masvidal 25%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Khabilov a 75% favorite over Jorge Masvidal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Rustam Khabilov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1785 to 1740, a 45-point edge.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jorge Masvidal finishes 51% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Khabilov 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.