Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Oliveira vs Mahamed Aly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-3-1Record5-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Black HouseTeamOne Way Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jorge OliveiraNow 1566
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
Mahamed AlyNow 1568
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-24→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jorge OliveiraMahamed Aly
155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
4 (80%)
3 (60%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (40%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Mahamed Aly60%
Jorge Oliveira 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 60% favorite over Jorge Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1568), separated by just 2 points.

Jorge Oliveira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Mahamed Aly 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.