Jorge Rivera vs Matěj Peňáz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReach83"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Rivera Athletic CenterTeamReinders MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jorge RiveraMatěj Peňáz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matěj Peňáz71%
Jorge Rivera 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matěj Peňáz a 71% favorite over Jorge Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jorge Rivera's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1680), separated by just 1 points.
Matěj Peňáz enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jorge Rivera finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matěj Peňáz 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.