Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Rivera vs Nissen Osterneck

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jorge Rivera
us

Jorge Rivera

“El Conquistador”

20-9-0MiddleweightUFC

1681Good

Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Rivera Athletic CenterTeamRelson Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Jorge Rivera is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nissen Osterneck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jorge RiveraNow 1681
If they win+10→ 1691
If they lose-14→ 1667
Nissen OsterneckNow 1620
If they win+19→ 1639
If they lose-13→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
50%
Strike accuracy
58%
2.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
54%
Strike defense
41%
0.91
Takedown avg.
0.63
50%
Takedown accuracy
13%
64%
Takedown defense
43%
0.13
Submission avg.
1.26

Trajectory

Jorge RiveraNissen Osterneck
16001650170020102011201220132014

Win method breakdown

14 (70%)
KO/TKO
4 (31%)
2 (10%)
Submission
7 (54%)
4 (20%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jorge Rivera and Nissen Osterneck within a point of even.

Jorge Rivera holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1620, a 61-point edge.

Jorge Rivera finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nissen Osterneck 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.