Combat Edge Intelligence

Jorge Santiago vs Stephen Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-12-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BlackziliansTeamTeam Upstate Karate

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jorge SantiagoNow 1703
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691
Stephen ThompsonNow 1702
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.69
Sig. strikes / min
4.11
35%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
56%
Strike defense
55%
0.58
Takedown avg.
0.25
30%
Takedown accuracy
42%
52%
Takedown defense
63%
0.77
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jorge SantiagoStephen Thompson
17001750201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (40%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
13 (52%)
Submission
1 (6%)
2 (8%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Thompson53%
Jorge Santiago 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 53% favorite over Jorge Santiago in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jorge Santiago's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1702), separated by just 1 points.

Jorge Santiago enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jorge Santiago finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.