Combat Edge Intelligence

Jose Mendez vs Kegan Gennrich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'2"
-Reach75"
155 lbsWeight171 lbs
Spokane Valley BJJTeamFox Valley Grappling Club

What's at stake

Kegan Gennrich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jose Mendez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jose MendezNow 1614
If they win+17→ 1631
If they lose-15→ 1599
Kegan GennrichNow 1642
If they win+15→ 1657
If they lose-17→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1477 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jose MendezKegan Gennrich
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
7 (78%)
Submission
5 (42%)
1 (11%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Kegan Gennrich71%
Jose Mendez 29%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Kegan Gennrich a 71% favorite over Jose Mendez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Kegan Gennrich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1614, a 28-point edge.

Kegan Gennrich enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jose Mendez finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Kegan Gennrich 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.