Combat Edge Intelligence

Jose Mendez vs Rafael Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
-Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Spokane Valley BJJTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jose MendezNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Rafael AlvesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1478 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.30
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.29
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
44%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Jose MendezRafael Alves
15501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
7 (78%)
Submission
9 (43%)
1 (11%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Jose Mendez60%
Rafael Alves 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jose Mendez a 60% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.

Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jose Mendez finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.