Jose Mendez vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
-Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1476 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jose MendezRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jose Mendez52%
Rafael Alves 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jose Mendez a 52% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1613), separated by just 0 points.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jose Mendez finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.