Jose Ochoa vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jose OchoaMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jose Ochoa70%
Matheus Nicolau 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jose Ochoa a 70% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1662), separated by just 0 points.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jose Ochoa finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Jose Ochoa and Matheus Nicolau share 1 common opponent: Asu Almabayev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.