Combat Edge Intelligence

Joseph Benavidez vs Sergio Pettis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-8-0Record25-8-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'6"
TBDReach69"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

Joseph Benavidez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sergio Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joseph BenavidezNow 1783
If they win+11→ 1794
If they lose-13→ 1770
Sergio PettisNow 1752
If they win+13→ 1765
If they lose-11→ 1741

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
35%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
61%
Strike defense
65%
1.41
Takedown avg.
0.85
31%
Takedown accuracy
37%
62%
Takedown defense
68%
0.59
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Joseph BenavidezSergio Pettis
17501800185020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (29%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
9 (32%)
Submission
4 (16%)
11 (39%)
Decision
16 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Sergio Pettis72%
Joseph Benavidez 28%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Pettis a 72% favorite over Joseph Benavidez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joseph Benavidez's way (46%).

Joseph Benavidez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1783 to 1752, a 31-point edge.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Joseph Benavidez finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.