Joseph Holmes vs Rodrigo Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record6-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
80"ReachTBD
189 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joseph HolmesRodrigo Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Holmes67%
Rodrigo Gracie 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Holmes a 67% favorite over Rodrigo Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1593), separated by just 1 points.
Joseph Holmes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joseph Holmes finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Gracie 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.