Joseph Luciano vs Tim McKenzie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record14-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight174 lbs
Absolute MMATeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1627
If they lose-16→ 1595
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joseph LucianoTim McKenzie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Luciano59%
Tim McKenzie 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Luciano a 59% favorite over Tim McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1610), separated by just 1 points.
Joseph Luciano finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tim McKenzie 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.