Combat Edge Intelligence

Joseph Morales vs Matt Schnell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Joseph Morales is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joseph MoralesNow 1714
If they win+11→ 1725
If they lose-21→ 1693
Matt SchnellNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-8→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.02
Sig. strikes / min
4.07
40%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.23
Takedown avg.
0.60
43%
Takedown accuracy
45%
29%
Takedown defense
43%
2.87
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Joseph MoralesMatt Schnell
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (14%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
8 (57%)
Submission
9 (56%)
4 (29%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Joseph Morales76%
Matt Schnell 24%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Morales a 76% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Joseph Morales holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1606, a 108-point edge.

Joseph Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joseph Morales finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.