Joseph Morales vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1649 avg Elo · 19 ratedTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Joseph Morales is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-20→ 1682
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joseph MoralesMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Morales60%
Matt Schnell 40%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Morales a 60% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Joseph Morales holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1613, a 89-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joseph Morales finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.