Josh Barnett vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-8-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
78,0"Reach72,0"
248 lbsWeight249 lbs
UWF USATeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Josh Barnett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1785
If they lose-17→ 1761
If they win+17→ 1649
If they lose-7→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh BarnettRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Barnett78%
Roy Nelson 22%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Barnett a 78% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Josh Barnett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1778 to 1632, a 146-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Josh Barnett finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Josh Barnett and Roy Nelson share 2 common opponents: Frank Mir and Sergei Kharitonov.
Josh Barnett carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
Win Arm Triangle Choke · 2011
Loss Punches & Knees · 2018