Josh Culibao vs Lucas Ganin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-1Record9-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'6"
73"Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh CulibaoLucas Ganin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Culibao54%
Lucas Ganin 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Culibao a 54% favorite over Lucas Ganin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1637), separated by just 1 points.
Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lucas Ganin enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Culibao finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Ganin 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.