Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Culibao vs Manuel Exposito

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-4-1Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
73"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight150 lbs
Igor MMATeamEntram Gym· 1682 avg Elo · 11 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh CulibaoNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Manuel ExpositoNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
66%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.29
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Josh CulibaoManuel Exposito
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
1 (9%)
Submission
7 (50%)
5 (45%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Manuel Exposito84%
Josh Culibao 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 84% favorite over Josh Culibao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Josh Culibao finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Manuel Exposito 79%.

Josh Culibao carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.