Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Ferguson vs Pedro Nobre

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record22-7-2
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
All American MMATeamBrazilian Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh FergusonNow 1584
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Pedro NobreNow 1587
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.13
Sig. strikes / min
1.37
44%
Strike accuracy
30%
4.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.16
32%
Strike defense
35%
0.59
Takedown avg.
0
11%
Takedown accuracy
0%
55%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Josh FergusonPedro Nobre
160020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
10 (91%)
Submission
6 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Ferguson66%
Pedro Nobre 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Ferguson a 66% favorite over Pedro Nobre in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pedro Nobre's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1587), separated by just 3 points.

Josh Ferguson enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Josh Ferguson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Nobre 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.