Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Hendricks vs Matheus Scheffel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
259 lbsWeight262 lbs
Superior Health ClubTeamCM System· 1632 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Josh Hendricks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Josh HendricksNow 1499
If they win+17→ 1516
If they lose-15→ 1484
Matheus ScheffelNow 1524
If they win+11→ 1535
If they lose-13→ 1511

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.98
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
20%
Strike accuracy
36%
11.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
29%
Strike defense
47%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Josh HendricksMatheus Scheffel
15001550160020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
12 (63%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (11%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Scheffel64%
Josh Hendricks 36%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 64% favorite over Josh Hendricks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1524 to 1499, a 25-point edge.

Josh Hendricks enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Josh Hendricks finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Scheffel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.