Josh Koscheck vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
73"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Dethrone Base CampTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Josh Koscheck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1661
If they lose-7→ 1637
If they win+7→ 1814
If they lose-17→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh KoscheckMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes74%
Josh Koscheck 26%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 74% favorite over Josh Koscheck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1644, a 163-point edge.
Josh Koscheck enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Koscheck finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes share 1 common opponent: Georges St-Pierre.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.