Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Koscheck vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Dethrone Base CampTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Josh Koscheck is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Josh KoscheckNow 1644
If they win+10→ 1654
If they lose-14→ 1630
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+14→ 1586
If they lose-10→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.79
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
36%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
63%
Strike defense
63%
2.46
Takedown avg.
0.71
48%
Takedown accuracy
61%
64%
Takedown defense
63%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Josh KoscheckThiago Alves
1600165017002016201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
4 (24%)
Submission
1 (4%)
7 (41%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Koscheck58%
Thiago Alves 42%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Koscheck a 58% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Josh Koscheck holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1572, a 72-point edge.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Koscheck finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Josh Koscheck carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.