Josh Neal vs Samuel Bily
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-5-0Record0-2-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReach-
160 lbsWeight174 lbs
Team
What's at stake
Samuel Bily is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Josh Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1436
If they lose-15→ 1404
If they win+22→ 1469
If they lose-26→ 1421
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1486 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh NealSamuel Bily
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Samuel Bily62%
Josh Neal 38%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Samuel Bily a 62% favorite over Josh Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Samuel Bily holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1447 to 1419, a 28-point edge.
Josh Neal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Samuel Bily enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Neal finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.