Josh Neer vs Justin Edwards
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-16-1Record10-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel
What's at stake
Josh Neer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Justin Edwards carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1658
If they lose-14→ 1634
If they win+19→ 1596
If they lose-13→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh NeerJustin Edwards
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Neer52%
Justin Edwards 48%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Neer a 52% favorite over Justin Edwards in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Josh Neer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1577, a 71-point edge.
Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Josh Neer finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Justin Edwards 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.