Josh Neer vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-16-1Record32-22-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Josh Neer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1632
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-8→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh NeerMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Neer70%
Melvin Guillard 30%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Neer a 70% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Josh Neer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1521, a 127-point edge.
Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Josh Neer finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.