Josh Neer vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-16-1Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Josh Neer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1661
If they lose-11→ 1637
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh NeerNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz71%
Josh Neer 29%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 71% favorite over Josh Neer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1648, a 26-point edge.
Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Josh Neer finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.