Josh Neer vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-16-1Record26-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Josh Neer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-8→ 1640
If they win+8→ 1767
If they lose-16→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh NeerNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Diaz78%
Josh Neer 22%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 78% favorite over Josh Neer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1648, a 111-point edge.
Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Josh Neer finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.