Josh Quinlan vs Roger Zapata
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record4-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Abe Brothers Jiu-Jitsu Las VegasTeamBruno Tostes BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1530
If they win+24→ 1571
If they lose-24→ 1523
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh QuinlanRoger Zapata
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roger Zapata60%
Josh Quinlan 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roger Zapata a 60% favorite over Josh Quinlan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1547), separated by just 1 points.
Josh Quinlan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Josh Quinlan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roger Zapata 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.