Josh Quinlan vs Trey Waters
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'5"
72"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Abe Brothers Jiu-Jitsu Las VegasTeamLudus MMA
What's at stake
Trey Waters is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Josh Quinlan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1568
If they lose-10→ 1536
If they win+10→ 1689
If they lose-22→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh QuinlanTrey Waters
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Waters79%
Josh Quinlan 21%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Waters a 79% favorite over Josh Quinlan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Trey Waters holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1679 to 1546, a 133-point edge.
Josh Quinlan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Josh Quinlan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 67%.
Trey Waters carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.