Josh Samman vs Kevin Casey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record9-6-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'11"
79,0"Reach77,0"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamBlack House
What's at stake
Josh Samman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kevin Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1621
If they lose-18→ 1589
If they win+18→ 1581
If they lose-14→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh SammanKevin Casey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Samman56%
Kevin Casey 44%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Samman a 56% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Josh Samman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1607 to 1563, a 44-point edge.
Josh Samman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Samman finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Casey 67%.
Josh Samman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.