Josh Samman vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'0"
79,0"Reach74,0"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Tim Boetsch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Josh Samman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1623
If they lose-15→ 1591
If they win+11→ 1642
If they lose-13→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh SammanTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Samman72%
Tim Boetsch 28%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Samman a 72% favorite over Tim Boetsch in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Boetsch's way (46%).
Tim Boetsch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1606, a 25-point edge.
Josh Samman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Josh Samman finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Josh Samman carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.