Josh Smith vs Kayck Alencar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-8-0Record12-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
TBDReach-
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEvolucao Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1519
If they lose-12→ 1495
If they win+16→ 1528
If they lose-16→ 1496
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh SmithKayck Alencar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kayck Alencar62%
Josh Smith 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Kayck Alencar a 62% favorite over Josh Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1507 vs 1512), separated by just 5 points.
Josh Smith finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Kayck Alencar 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.